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Fiery Venezuela / Ignacio Ramonet

translation Cuba - Network in Defense of Humanity

2016 could be highly conflicting in Venezuela. For internal and external reasons.

Internally the large victory in the legislative elections last December 6 of the opposition coalition of the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) has a controlled National Assembly – by a qualified majority and for the first time since 1999 – by forces hostile to the Bolivarian revolution. But, within, the Chavist forces of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) continue to be the largest with 51 congress persons. This forecasts, as of January 5, a high intensity dialectic clash.

With a control of two thirds of the legislature, the opposition, undoubtedly, believes he can deconstruct, piece by piece, the Bolivarian revolution. Theoretically it can be done. The Constitution always allows it. It also has the support of the Superior Court of Justice (TSJ) that functions as a Constitutional Court and from which the Poder Ciudadano (formed by the Defensor del Pueblo [Defender of the People], the Fiscal General [the General Prosecutor] and the Contralor General de la República [General Comptroler of the Republic]). But it would be a serious error. The MUD should not be confused. Because it is clear – a simple analysis of the results demonstrates it – that the voters have not given them the mandate or the absolute faculty to govern legally. An institutional clash could be frontal and brutal .

Sociologically Chavism continues to be a large majority. In an eventual referendum in favor or against the Bolivarian revolution, all studies conclude that a solid majority would vote for a continuity of the process. Last December 6 was only a legislative election to designate the deputies and not change the Republic nor change the President. The citizens, intelligently, took advantage to send a warning message and protest to the authorities. Many did not even imagine that they granted such an excessive victory to the opposition.

It never was a vote of adhesion to an (occult) program of MUD but a vote of warning for the current administration.

And this is normal. Because for long months, as a result – in part – of a “dirty economic war” supported and promoted by the offices of the International Conservatism and also – as denounced by President Nicolás Maduro - as a result of the “bureaucratic asphyxiation and corruption” daily life has become infernal for the people. Theshortages of products of first necessity – both of food and personal and home hygiene – of medicines makes every day a struggle for the Venezuelans to solve shortages that had never reached this level.

Although many experts do not recognize it, the authorities have made an enormous and priority effort to combat this plague. But the voters do not think it was enough. They supported this with their negative vote; or rather an absence of victory in the capital front.

This is the main reason for the adverse results of D-6 for Chavism. If we add the several problems that continue without solution – such as the subjects of inflation, insecurity and corruption that contaminate

the image of the Bolivarian revolution – we complete the diagnosis of a general discomfort that has become a critical feeling against the leaders.

The opposition, we said, thinks their time has come: the time to restore neo liberalism. And after carefully hidden its program during the electoral campaign, has now announced in loud voices its intention of increasing the privatizations, of reducing public services, of revocation of labor laws, of eliminating social achievements, of dismantling international agreements …In face of this provocation (let us remember that Chavism is sociologically a majority) President Maduro has warned public opinion and rapidly constituting a Communal Parliament whose function in the architecture of the State is not yet clear but could function as a representative and consultative institution of society parallel to the National Assembly.

Everything indicates that there could be a train crash. Venezuelan society is deeply democratic and peaceful – as demonstrated in the past seventeen years – but we are facing a strong pulse of two large political forces, Chavism and the right wing each controlling, respectively the executive power and legislative power. The temptation to take to the streets and mass protests will be very large; with the danger of clashes and violence.

This scenario of civil war is not desired by the majority of voters whose message on last December 6 is an open call for dialogue between officialism and opposition with a clear purpose: that the to forces understand each other to solve the structural problems of the country.

We said at the beginning that, in 2016, a conflict could be high in Venezuela also for external reasons. And it is that this year it was announced in terms of international economic situation as one of the worse in the past two decades. Essential for three reasons: the fall of the prices of raw materials and oil, the crisis of growth in China and the increased value of the United States dollar.

It is useless to insist that the prices of oil have a fundamental impact on the economic life of Venezuela since more than 90% of hard currency the country derives from the export of the black gold. In eighteen months the prices for a barrel of oil that was sold at 115 dollars fell to 30 dollars…And it is not impossible that by the end of the year it would fall to 20 dollars.

For any oil producing country (Angola, Algeria, Mexico, etc.) represents as such a catastrophe for Venezuela (and to a certain extent Ecuador or Bolivia) that redistributes its oil profits for social policies that would be a very hard blow and a mortal threat to the equilibrium of the Bolivarian revolution.

The second external parameter is China. This country has modified its model of development and growth in favor of its internal market (1,500 million consumers), for an increase of services and quality of life that contamination threatened to death. The rate of growth, that before was 10 or 12% fell to 6 or 7%. Consequence: the import of raw materials (minerals or agricultural products) has reduced that brings with it a fall of prices of metals that affects frontally the Latin American export countries (Peru, Chile) and of soy beans (Argentina, Brazil). The political crisis of the latter countries is not alien to the situation and that also affects indirectly Caracas, an important partner of Brasilia and Buenos Aires within MERCOSUR.

Lastly the dollar. The decision taken last December 16 by the Federal Reserve of raising the type of interest by 0,25% after the new year, increases the strength of the dollar. That the dollar is more profitable in the United States encourages investors to withdraw their capital – invested massively since the crisis began in 2008 – and move them to North America. Consequence: the value of the hard currency of the “emergent countries” (Brazil, Colombia, Chile collapses and doubly devaluated by the strengthening o the dollar for the flight of capital. All imported products are more costly.

This Latin American and international context foreseen for 2016 negatively impacts the economy of Venezuela. It is an uphill perspective to find rapid solutions to solve the problems of the country. Since winning the elections in April 14 of 2013 President Nicolás Maduro has called on the opposition and private sectors repeatedly to establish a National Dialogue. It is very important in the tempests forecast that MUD respond now to these calls in a constructive spirit of responsibility. Venezuela deserves it.

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