Bolivia: electoral cartography and challenges

By Katu Arkonada
Source: Blog Telesur

With less than 3 months the Bolivian presidential elections will be held October 12, (it´s not a coincidence) Day of Decolonization. The vote on the binomial President-Vicepresident will come accompanied by the election of 130 representatives and 35 senators

If Evo Morales wins the election he will become the President who has governed Bolivia the longest, and making him also as the President with the highest citizen approval ever seen in the history of this country. 

Although surveys are tools that cannot reveal definite conclusions for D Day of the elections, being more static than dynamic, what is true is that the latest studies reveals an image of Bolivian political scenario that has been strengthening in the past months.

The latest survey was done in June by IPSOS pollster interviewing 1060 persons in 4 of the main cities of Bolivia: La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz with an error margin of 3’01%. The most significant data of this study demonstrates an approval in the major axis of management of President Evo Morales of 73% that reached 83% in the city of El Alto (while the “lowest” is in Cochabamba and Santa Cruz with 66 and 68% respectively). Approval is regardless of gender (75% among the men and 70% among women) or ages (with a minimum of difference in percentages between 40 and 70 years) of the persons interviewed.

Also, and with great different reasons, the most important (40%) the Bolivians approve of the presidential managements is for his works (roads, schools, airports, home gas); in other words better material conditions than the nationalization of hydrocarbons and redistribution of wealth that has been developed.

When we stop to examine the reasons for disapproval of the Presidential management, it is in first place 30% with those who claim “He doesn’t govern for everyone”, 30% that coincide with the numbers of votes in the past few years of a hard core of the Bolivian rightwing.

Like a photograph of Bolivian society the IPSOS survey refers that the alteños (followed by the paceños) and persons of low socio economic level; in other words, the popular classes of Bolivia approve the management of the Government. On the contrary it is the young people and those from Santa Cruz, with lower percentages of about 30% who approve management of the opposition.

Another two elements to note in the IPSOS survey are that the management of the Plurinacional Legislative Assembly does not reach approval in any of the main cities of Bolivia (33% in La Paz, 49% El Alto, 35% Cochabamba and 37% Santa Cruz), with even lower approval of the Judicial Power (28% La Paz, 35% El Alto, 37% Cochabamba, 32% Santa Cruz).

To complete the general panorama, what does receive high approval is the economic management of the government that with 45% receives the highest approval in the past few years.

Considering the survey made in the city and not in the countryside is where more political redistributions reach (it is also not by chance that of the 4 main cities the highest percentages is in El Alto with 54%) it can be deduced that the percentages of approval of the economic policy as a whole in Bolivia is above 60 %. It is with this New Economic Model in which the scene changes the era in Bolivia, the recovery of the State and redistribution of wealth.

Post neo liberal economic model

To better understand the image of Bolivian society that we are viewing it is necessary to stop and delve in the results of the economic model set up during the post neo liberal period in which we find ourselves.

It is obvious that the nationalization of the hydrocarbons has allowed at first a growth of the GDP per capita (from 1.010USD in 2005 to 2.757USD) while international reserves have gone from 1.714 USD in 2005 to 14.430 in 2013(with 47% of the GDP highest in Latin America).

But all this is merely indicators of good macroeconomic management of the Los Chuquiago Boys 1 but the same that represents public policy whereby public investment in 2013 of 3.781 million USD (as compared to 629million USD in 2005) that are practically shared up in equal parts between investment in social policies, infrastructures and productive development.

Two other achievements of the economic model has been the increase of minimum salary from 440 bolivianos (approximately 63USD) in 2005 to 1200 bs (173USD) in 2013; at the same time urban unemployment has fallen from 8’1% in 2012 to 3’2%, the lowest in all Latin America.

Everything above mentioned has allowed a drastic reduction of the levels of poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty has reduced from 38’2%in 2005 to 21’6% in 2012 and since 2011 Bolivia is no longer the poorest nation in Latin America (an unfortunate honor that corresponds to Paraguay). At the same time inequality measure of the Gini Index 3 has gone from 0’60 in 2005 to 0’47 in 2012; in 2005 incomes of the 10% wealthiest was 128 times more than 10% of the poorer while in 2012 this differences was reduced 46 times.

This reduction of poverty and inequality is due mainly by 1.084 million USD inverted every year in social policies, above all through transferences conditioned in cash of the famous bonds that reach 36’6% of the Bolivian population, more than 4 million persons.

And, although the bonds are a rapid form of redistribution of wealth through the nationalization, the other level that derived from nationalization with one of medium-long range, industrialization of the hydrocarbons that with productive diversification is where the future is played in this process of change.

Political-electoral geography

Precisely the date of inscription before the Supreme Electoral Court has closed for the different parties that will take part of the elections. Programs in which the view for the country are set down and proposals are presented for the period of 2015-2020 of each political organization.

Among the programs presented the one with the most political depth has been presented by the Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) that defines the Bolivia we want for 2015-2020 with 12 proposals for Living Well.

The first proposal is the reduction of extreme poverty. Thereby the Patriotic Agenda defines the political process and proposes for 2025 a reduction to zero of extreme poverty. The government of MAS is to reduce it 9% by 2010 reaching by that year and as a phase of transition to zero the extreme poverty in 100 of the 339 municipalities of Bolivia. Together with this, and the second goal, the program proposes universalization of basic services; 100% of the urban region with 90% of drinking water and electricity and 60% of sewer system. Also a challenge is launched to have more than a million connections of gas in housing as compared to 450 000 today (44.000 in 2005). All this is strongly related to the third goal that refers to access to housing, education and health that should reach 70% by 2020 of the population with coverage of the Universal Health Insurance.

The fourth proposal of the MAS electoral program defines the technological and scientific revolution, a goal that relies on the development of nuclear energy for pacific uses guaranteeing energy independence for Bolivia. This is a proposal that is joined to the fifth challenge, of an industrialized, productive country with employment investment, already announced of 1.800 USD for a petro chemical plant in Tarija. Proposed is a second plant with an investment of 3.000 USD by 2020.

Millionaire investments added to the 800 million USD for the exploitation of lithium, one of the energies of the future in a country that has the largest reserves in the world. This goal is aimed at clear energy sovereignty, proposing to generate up to 1.672 mW in 2020. Of these 1000 mW would be for export, while there is a diversification of the energy matrix. And although energy sovereignty is fundamental food sovereignty is also important. The sixth proposal of the MAS program is aimed at the production of food with the goal, for 2020, to cover at least 60% of the internal demand of wheat as well as an increase of geographic cover of universal agrarian insurance of 175,520 hectares. The sixth goal that is linked to the seventh is Water for Life in which a proposal is developed for the management of water and irrigation, forest resources and biodiversity. The eighth challenge of the MAS program for 2020 is the integration of road, air, rail, water and cable transportation with an extension of the Teleférico de La Paz (cable railway) to other neighborhoods and regions as the main proposal. At the same time, the ninth proposal, is to care for the present to insure the future and among many other objectives is the increase of incomes and agreement bonds for the growth of the economy. The tenth goal for Good Living is to achieve a sovereign and sure country, emphasizing goals to strengthen citizen safety and the fight against drug traffic, two of the main concerns of the population together with problems of justice and corruption that are precisely the eleventh MAS proposal. Two novel proposals in this sphere is the installation of an Assembly for Revolution of an Honorable Justice with social participation and a Law of Reform and Constitutional Referendum for a legal change to achieve a real revolution in justice with the participation of the people. All this is the Aymara trilogy of AmaSuwa (do not steal, tolerance 0 against corruption), AmaLlulla (do not lie that refers to transparence and access to information from state institutions) and AmaQuilla (do not be weak or lazy, and bets on a Plurinacional Policy of Decolonization of Public Ethics and Revolution of Behavior in those who serve the public).

Finally, the last MAS electoral proposal is a world order for life and humanity to Live Good. Diplomacy of the Peoples, as a challenge to continue with an open horizon in this 2014 with the G77+China Summit, the Anti imperialist Union Meeting and its policy thesis or the next Sao Paulo Forum to be held in La Paz in August. A demand for a reform of the United Nations and a new international financial architecture for the opening of a sovereign sea route, for the defense of the coca leaf and Rights of the Native Peoples.

Meanwhile, in the opposition desert

In addition to MAS there are 9 political organization of the opposition that presented their electoral proposals that culminated in 4 binomials of the opposition parties that will compete in the presidential elections in which only 2 have a possibility to scratch a percentage of a significant vote in October. 

In the first place is the Unidad Demócrata that represents the convergence of the Unidad Nacional of the former minister of Planning Development during the neo liberal government of Samuel Doria Medina and the Demócrata Social formed by the Governor of Santa Cruz, Rubén Costas, of the neo liberal right wing unable to hide his past (and proposals for the future). 

On the other hand, the Movimiento Sin Miedo headed by former Mayor of Paz, Juan del Granado who from a political center attempts to attract the urban middle classes unhappy about the process of change.

Justicia is the front that the opposition supports and that also launches several main proposals, demonstrating its class condition and the political and ideological horizon of each political organization.

Unidad Demócrata proposes an elitist out from the crisis of justice forming a “commission” of important people, presided by the Defender of the People and integrated by four other personalities of known” to prepare a plan of “institutionalization and regeneration of justice”.

The MSN also has a not very democratic concept policy since for the Sin Miedo the solution of justice includes the resignation or “legal dismissal” of the magistrates, supreme judges and General Prosecutor, many elected by popular vote.

Also the two main opposition fronts plans a reorganization and reform of the Police and Armed Forces opening the way for a demagogical position. The candidate for vice president of MSN, Adrian Gil has proposed tripling the salary of the Police and even the MSN proposes in its program that the budget set aside for health to be increased from 5 to 10%. The UD proposes that 50% of the annual budget be used for health, education and citizen security while defending the “Bond for the Future” of 350 bs (50 USD) for the homes in situation of poverty.

Naturally none of the political parties of the opposition explain in their election programs where they are going to cut costs to achieve those increases or how it is going to manage the budget if they were to win the elections.

2015-2020 Challenges

In any case everything seems to point to a new victory of Evo Morales and MAS with 60% of votes (it should be remembered that in 2005 it obtained 54% and in 2009 it was 64%) that is commendable considering the normal loss of political support after more than 8 years of government. If victory is practically sure, it would be worthwhile to examine what are the challenges the process of change will face for the next 2015-2020 cycle.

In the first part it is important to consolidate the 2/3 that the Plurinacional Legislative Assembly has. Otherwise it would open space and influence to the most pragmatic sectors of the process that aim to reduce the radicalism of the process and generate pacts with the opposition. The 2/3 is necessary to set in motion a constitutional referendum among other modifications to eliminate the transitional position that would eliminate the possibility of a reelection of Evo Morales. 

Today there is no change to conduct the process of change since it crystallizes like none other the popular classes of Bolivia, the farming original indigenous movement and their vision, aspirations and horizons. Today there is no change to conduct the process of change since it crystallizes like no one else the Bolivian popular classes, the indigenous movement of original campesinos, their memories, aspirations and horizons. Therefore, it makes no sense to limit mandates of those who best express popular will. Since, in most European countries there is no limit to mandates beyond the will of the voters there is no reason to limit this in Bolivia. All in an Assembly with a strong opposition presence and better prepared that the current, aiming to construct a leadership that is disputed for the presidency in 2019.

In this manner the rightwing must be confronted; a rightwing that reorganizes transforms and disguises in the best style of Capriles in Venezuela. The solution is not merely pragmatic nor there agreements with the opposition but by the confrontation from the hard nucleus of the social movements, the unions and indigenous people that set in motion the process of change.

Social movements should follow a creative balance with the government and State. Movements that should be the basis from which to deepen and radicalize the process, of transforming the political and decolonizing revolution into an authentic social revolution against the attempts to maintain the position, of not going further and simply managing give priority to what has achieved up to the moment.

At this point the management is crucial to fulfill aspirations and demands of the middle class. When the margins of democracy broaden the people want more rights. While one or two million Bolivians pass to the middle class, unsatisfied demands grow in the cities where the changes made in the countryside don’t reach regarding the redistribution of wealth or improved life conditions. The same as in Brazil the protests against an increase of taxes has not occurred in the North east where most poverty is concentrated but in Sao Paulo led by unsatisfied young people of the middle class. Bolivia must prepare for a similar phase of social conflicts and demands.

All this also in preparation for 2019 in which the opposition will arrive with a Bolivian Capriles but that year there will be a census of a million new voters, many born around the year 2000 that had not known neo liberalism nor the wars for water or gas. How to seduce that new generation that the presence of the State or redistribution of wealth is permanent in their lives and not as an achievement that can be reverted?

This recovery of the State and redistribution are attributes of post neo liberalism and most give way to a new model of development. Our extra activist economies must be rethought for many reasons that include ecological limits of a planet that cannot resist the economic growth of capitalism in what is called the developed countries and much less the emergent powers such as China or India with 1.300million inhabitants each; and the limits of a capitalism that is suffering a structural crisis that cannot obtain profits nor maintain its rate of winnings but it is through the exploitation of persons and nature. In this scenario, the Bolivian contributes of how to re think and conjugate the right to development and the rights of the Mothe Earth is a fundamental issue for future debates. As a complement, the purpose of nationalization of the natural resources is to recover political and economic sovereignty, crucial at this moment is a period of industrialization. We must enter a third phase that is accompanied by a productive diversification as a complement in the search of an alternate model of development (because the alternatives to development continue to be a utopia in Bolivia; why talk of China or India).

The challenges are great, all within an international context marked by the death of Chávez and a slowing down of processes of change and regional integration. In the coming years Bolivia must conjugate the national with the international, deciding its place in the geopolitical reorganization that we are going through.

Even the eternal Comandante demanded irreverence from Venezuela and loyalty in action; these are the key issues of the future in Bolivia, discussion and debates on routes and political and ideological policy and unity when advancing towards the horizon.

A Cuba-Network in Defense of Humanity translation
http://cuba-networkdefenseofhumanity.blogspot.com/

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